Sholom Boguslavsky Says: The Race is Far From Over
“The numbers in this survey can’t be real. But this poll, as well as others, does indicate that Ofer Berkowitz has a chance as a candidate. And it doesn’t have to do just with popularity rates but with this little thing called actually leaving the house and voting.
The media simply assumed that if it knew the name Ze’ev Elkin and did not know the name Ofer Berkowitz, it is clear that Elkin is the leading and natural candidate and that he will win with ease. You can add to that the support of Nir Barkat, the council of Judea and Samaria and maybe Bibi’s in the future.
the only thing is is that all of this isn’t particularly connected to how Jerusalemites vote.
I don’t think Elkin will motivate folks. Many people may prefer him, but it is doubtful how important it will be to them. In the last two elections, Barkat injected motivation into his voters when he managed to create an “either-or” atmosphere. EIther a secular guy or a Haredi candidate. Either a Jerusalemite or a hitchhiker who just arrived from Givatayim. Elkin can’t do anything like that.
What he can do is position himself as the natural and safe candidate. And it’s dangerous for him to do so because if he does, his supporters will simply assume that he’s clinched it already in his pocket and will not bother going to the polls.
Berkowitz’s supporters, on the other hand, can create an “either-or” atmosphere, so they can get the target audience motivated and get people to vote.
And of course, let’s not forget Moshe Leon. Almost no commentator gave him a chance in the last elections and despite that he almost beat Barkat. I can say that when I saw a photo of him in the backyard of the slums of the Gilo absorption center the day before the elections, I thought he had a chance. And he continues to visit the areas that the media has not even realized exist since the last election.
So I would say that between the one who walks delicately on a red carpet and is sure that the office on the sixth floor will be served on a silver platter, the one who has been kissing babies in the less sexy neighborhoods of the city for five years and who can inject motivation and enthusiasm into his voters – the game is far from over”
– Shalom Boguslavsky, West Jerusalemite Activist
“Jerusalem is going to elect Ofer Berkovitch for Mayor!
A survey held by ‘Maagar Mochot’ institute for Besheva newspaper shows: Jerusalemites want local, Jerusalemite, true leadership.
We call for all candidates that love Jerusalem to support Ofer Berkovitch for the position of mayor – Jerusalem first of all!”
[From the Photo:]
“If the mayoral elections were held today, for whom out of the following candidates would you vote?
32% – Ofer Berkovitch
27% – Zeev Elkin
14% – Yosef Daitch
14% – Moshe Leon
5% – Avi Salman
4% – Yossi Havilio
4% – Kobi Kahlon”
– Hit’orerut Movement’s  FB Page (Ofer Berkovith is Hit’orerut’s candidate.)
– “I’m very glad to hear that!”
– “Ofer and his movement are the only ones who will save Jerusalem.”
– “Great. The people of Jerusalem want a mayor who was born here, grew up here, and understands – like Ofer Berkovitch. I’m sure that the gap will widen. […]”
– “The real question is not who wins in surveys, but who wins in the elections. How do you create a coalition with Yerushalmim ? How do you cause the outlying candidates, that are taking votes from Ofer, to stand behind him? How do you get potential voters to go vote on the big day?”
– “So? You went out of your way to ‘order’ a survey from a sectorial newspaper? Well done! Besheva is a national-religious newspaper, and in my opinion, they’re big ‘pluralists’ over there. LOL”
– [In response:] “There are other surveys too, like Mina Tzemah’s for example. Good enough and pluralistic enough for you?”
– “a. Kobi Kahlon isn’t a candidate.
b. The survey does not include the Haredis, and they make up 30% of the city’s population.
c. Good luck to all candidates.”
– [In response:] “What makes you think this doesn’t include the Haredis? The survey was held among a representative sample of Jerusalem.”
0202 Editor’s Notes:
 Hit’orerut and Yerushalmim are two local parties. Their voter constituency is primarily made of non-Haredi residents of Jerusalem, particularly the younger population and secular Jerusalemites. They promote a pluralistic agenda.